Just days out from the event, four-time Bathurst Champion and amazing nine-time race winner at Pukekohe Park Raceway Greg Murphy gave v8supercars.com.au his predictions for the ITM 500 Auckland.
And even he is finding it too close to call, with six race winners from nine Championship races this season and mixed form from the usual contenders.
The main thing to take away from Murph’s musings?
“The list of who could be up the front fighting is a long one,” he said. “It’s not one person that stands out at all to me.”
“The three Kiwis have a red hot chance”
“I think there’s the possibility all three Kiwi guys have a red hot chance of being up there,” Murphy said.
“They’re all performing at the absolute top level, as good as anybody else.
“Scott (McLaughlin), Fabian (Coulthard) and Shane (van Gisbergen) – I think those three guys might have a little advantage just with how confident I think they are and also that bit of extra local help they’ll get from the crowd and the people. I think they’re a good chance.”
Coulthard has won a Championship race this season, McLaughlin sailed home first in the final race at the Formula One Rolex Australian Grand Prix and van Gisbergen won the other three races there.
All three sit in the top 10 in the points, with Coulthard third on 658, van Gisbergen sixth with 549 and McLaughlin 10th with 406.
Last year, McLaughlin won his first Championship race at Pukekohe, while Coulthard earned one ARMOR ALL Pole Position and third-place finish, behind van Gisbergen’s second in Race Eight.
But don’t count out the usual suspects
“You can’t look past the Triple Eight guys,” Murphy said.
But when asked if Lowndes will leave New Zealand with the points lead he has garnered, Murph wasn’t so sure.
“Who would know? There’s nothing standard about this year.
“They were so dominant at Symmons Plains, Triple Eight, they go to Winton and they’re just like everybody else, just cars making up the numbers.”
“The fact is, if anyone’s going to turn their fortunes around really quickly, those guys know how to do it so he could easily hang onto it, and the way it is so close at the front of the Championship, could quite easily drop some spots.
“I don’t think they would, right now, be oozing with confidence that they are going to go there and show everybody how it’s done. I’m sure they would be very aware of the task at hand, and let’s say you’ve got three Kiwis all performing at their absolute best at the moment, and potentially a little advantage on home soil might be a little too much for everybody else. I’m hoping!”
FPR underperforming – until Winton
“Mark Winterbottom showed some great speed, they’ve worked very hard that team to turn their weekend around,” Murph said.
“He was fast there (Pukekohe) last year so you definitely have to put him on the list.”
Winterbottom had only been thereabouts until his emphatic race win at Winton – but his teammates had been nowhere to be seen at the top.
“I’d say FPR has probably been underachieving until the last race at Winton where all of a sudden they were in quite a strong position.
“The race – we didn’t see the best of that race with the drive through penalties all over the place – but they definitely have been, and by their own admission underperformed greatly up until that last race at Winton.
“They’ve got to step it up and start doing more of what they did at Winton if they want to be serious contenders.”
Then there’s…
“The HRT guys – James Courtney is showing good pace. He could very easily improve that form even more going into the weekend,” Murph said of his Pirtek Enduro Cup co-driver.
Victorious in the 250km race and being crowned event winner at the Clipsal 500 is something the 2010 V8 Supercars Champion has not done before. He’s not missed the podium at any of the Championship events since and is tucked in fourth in the standings, just three points ahead of Whincup.
“All those people – and then there could be some surprises.
“But the cars, I think it’ll be very tight. Fine-tuning stuff takes time and it happens all the way through the weekend – that can determine someone at the end of the weekend making a bit of a difference…
“The thing you’ve got to remember is it’s a pretty short lap time again, we’re going to have the whole field, I reckon, well within a second. It’s going to be incredibly tight.”
What’s happened to the Nissans?
“I’ve been a little bit surprised probably about the Nissan guys and how competitive they’ve been,” Murph said when asked who has been underperforming.
“I don’t know if Puekohe is going to – who knows? – (But) their cars I think are probably going to handle this circuit a bit better. Though the hairpin at Puke is pretty tight – they struggled at Symmons because of the hairpin. We’ll see what happens with those guys.”
But it’s too soon to call.
“It’s hard to say at this stage who’s underperforming… It’s open slather. You saw qualifying at Winton, to see the different positions all the cars were in qualifying.”
So, what’s the trick to doing well?
“For the short period of time they’ve got for the first practice then qualifying, it’s going to be a case of who rolls it out of – in this case, the aeroplane – who rolls it out onto the track and doesn’t have to do a lot to tune the car straight up,” Murph said, considering the 30-minute practice session followed by qualifying 15 minutes later.
“It’s going to be close… Puke’s a little bit unique in a couple of places, really bumpy down to turn one, so a car that handles that part of the circuit really well, and someone who can drive the car in there and be really confident into turn one is probably going to find a little bit of an advantage. But who it will be – I have no idea at this stage.
“It’s a big list of guys and possibilities. If you were a betting man, you’d spread your money around a bit I think!”
The ITM 500 Auckland runs from April 24-27 at Pukekohe Park Raceway. Tickets are available now.
Greg Murphy will be at the race meeting, as well as hosting the free Pit Stop Challenge in Queen Street and the RSA fundraising event on Wednesday evening in Auckland – get your tickets for the fundraiser, which will have a Q&A with a number of V8 Supercars drivers, now.
